RRI seminar speaker Dr. Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli, Professor of Economics and Researcher at the Territorial and Sectorial Analysis Laboratory at the Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil, will present Demographic Changes in Brazil and its Impact on Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Input-Output Analysis. The presentation will begin at 12:30 p.m. on January 25 in room 325 Brooks Hall.
ABSTRACT: In recent years, the debate on issues related to demographic changes and their impacts on the economy has increased. However, demographic changes affect not only variables such as economic growth and the labor market, but also aggregate consumption, and especially the composition of this consumption. These changes in population composition may occur in the coming decades in many parts of the globe, and their effects on the composition of consumption, notably on energy demand and emissions, are not yet known. In this context, this article aims to estimate the changes in the pattern of consumption in Brazil due to the changes projected in the age pyramid in 2050 and the consequences of these changes on CO2 emissions. For this, projections will be made using an input-output model for the Brazilian economy for the year 2010 considering 15 productive sectors and six age groups. The results suggest that the change in the age structure does not seem to lead to a less intensive consumption pattern in emissions, although the share of sectors such as Fuels and Transport showed a small decrease in the consumption vector by 2050.